A Look Back At Things You Need To Know Before You Go Home On Wednesday; some TD hikes and cuts, strong inflationary pressures, huge mortgage demand, other loans finally picking up, swaps stable, NZD slip-ups and more

Here are the most important things you need to know before you leave work today.

CHANGES TO THE MORTGAGE COUNCIL
There are no changes to be announced today.

CHANGES TO THE DEPOSIT ADVICE
The Kiwibank has ended its 4-month special offer of 1.1% pa, whereby this rate has returned to 0.45% pa. The BNZ has increased most term deposit rates for terms of 9 months and longer, but only to a level that has already been accepted by its main competitors. The BNZ has also reduced the account now ironically called “Rapid Saver” by -5 basis points and increased the maximum potential interest rate to 0.15% pa.

INFLATIONAL PRESSURE INTENSIVE
Latest ANZ business outlook survey shows Companies see inflation well above the Reserve Bank’s 2% target over the next 12 months. The price intentions in retail look very high. And as always, companies see their own prospects are much more positive than they see the entire business environment.

DIVERSE BUYERS FOR MILK EXPORTS
Fonterra is reporting that despite some recent weather events, the milk flow at the end of the season was stronger than expected. New Zealand’s milk exports rose sharply, and they also find that other milk exporting countries are making similar, even larger, profits. All major import regions are consuming much more products than a year ago, with the possible exception of China, where imports in May only increased by + 1.3% compared to May 2020. Fonterra reports that it sold 20,700 tons of product at the GDT auction on June 15. The auction operator stated that they had sold 21,522 tons at the event. This means that Fonterra delivers 96% of the product offered on this platform.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE REQUIRED?
Last week that NZX50 capitalization for the eight companies in the real estate sector, they suffered a collective decline of nearly $ 100 million (-0.85% for the week. All companies except Goodman Property Trust (mean Greenwich Mean Time # 16) Loss of value last week. However, for the past month they are still up + 1.1% (+ $ 126 million), which is most of the annual increase of + $ 252 million (+ 2.3%).

SHOP FAST TO ALL ARRIVALS
The combined mortgage books of all home lenders rose more than $ 3 billion in May from April, the fourth month since November 2020 to beat that benchmark. For the year through May, the increase is + $ 32.3 billion (a record), or + 11.4%, the largest proportional increase since February 2008.

GOLD RUSH
ASB reports that it has committed to $ 2 billion in just one month as part of its Bank by Build program. With ANZ now launching a similar product, it looks like the new construction industry is getting the funding it needs, and that the government’s exemption for new home from its expanded Brightline test is distracting many more buyers from existing new homes. (The ASB is expected to provide $ 1 billion in its program after a year.)

BANKS LOVE BUSINESS?
Bank Corporate Loans Recorded in May, up + $ 461 million from April, the largest increase since the pandemic began. A month does not make a trend, but a trend cannot begin without a turning point. Lending to the rural sector also increased in May from April, the second largest monthly increase since July 2019.

HERE COMES RISING CONSUMER EXPENDITURE
Depositor deducted nearly $ -1 billion from their bank accounts in May from April when they start spending the money the set up quickly in the months leading up to the outbreak of the pandemic.

CARBON PRICE STAYS UP FAST
It’s the last day of the month, so it seems appropriate to point out that the price of carbon has increased + 5.5% in one month and + 74% in one year. One NZU is now NZ $ 43.45 at market price. One NZU corresponds to 1 tonne of CO2 equivalent.

NOT REALLY
The idea Wholesale electricity prices We realized yesterday that it may have been the wrong signal. They rose sharply again overnight to over USD 300 / MWhr.

GROWTH SLOWS DOWN
In China are theirs official PMIs weren’t that noticeable. The latest polls suggest that growth slowed in June. This was mainly due to a slower improvement in service activity. But supply bottlenecks also continued to slow production in the manufacturing sector. On a positive note, recent polls are suggesting an abrupt decrease in price pressures.

Pandemic frustrations are boiling over
In Australia, a relatively small spike in new cases translates into relatively stricter lockdown regulations as their states move into a serious battle mode with Canberra over vaccine access.

GOLD FALLS
Compared to yesterday’s point in time, the price of gold in early Asian trading has fallen by -11 USD / ounce to 1764 USD / ounce.

MARKING TIME FOR STOCK MARKETS
The S & P500 ended its Tuesday session flat. The very large Tokyo stock market has given up some annual gains in morning trading to stay flat. Hong Kong also opened flat, while Shanghai was up 0.3% in early trading there. The ASX200 is up + 0.6% in early afternoon trading, while the NZX50 Capital Index remains unchanged in late trading.

SWAP & BONDS TRACK LATERAL
Today’s closing swap rates are not yet available. Should there be any major changes today, we will update this point. They are likely unchanged. The 90-day bank bill rate rose +1 bp to 0.35%. The Australian government’s ten-year reference interest rate is still just under 1.50%. The Chinese government’s ten-year bond is still at 3.11%. The ten-year New Zealand government is also unchanged at 1.79% and above the previous RBNZ fix of 1.77% (-2 basis points). The ten-year U.S. government is still down 1.48%, but most of that happened two nights ago.

NZ DOLLAR HAPPENS AGAIN
The kiwi dollar has slipped steadily over the past 48 hours and is now at USc 70, despite having been lower for the past 24 hours. We hold it at 93.1 AUc against the Aussie. We are somewhat weaker against the euro at 58.9 cents. That means the TWI-5 has now dropped to 72.6.

BITCOIN COMPANY
Bitcoin price is now at $ 35,745, + 3.0% higher than yesterday at the time. The volatility in the last 24 hours was high at +/- 3.5%. In Australia it is ASIC warning that exchange-traded funds linked to crypto assets such as Bitcoin pose the “real risk of harm to consumers and markets”. The FMA will presumably follow suit here.

This soil moisture table is animated here.

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End of the day UTC

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